The framework
Doctrine defines the menu; interests affect selection and incidence; personalism shapes the decision; reality answers back.
Framework overview →The Meal Fights Back
Decision systems, incentives, and geopolitical forecasting.
A developing framework for understanding personalist decision-making without reducing every outcome to either one leader’s psychology or a perfectly coherent grand strategy.
Publication structure
Method before commentary
The goal is not to produce a stream of opinions. It is to make observations, inferences, predictions, and failures distinguishable.
Prediction ledger
Dated scenarios, probabilities, resolution criteria, outcomes, and model revisions—beginning with the Iran escalation record.
View the ledger →Research foundations
An annotated literature map showing where the framework is well grounded, where concepts need narrowing, and what should be revised.
Review the evidence →